Juan Soto is a once-in-a-generation talent, currently at the peak of his career, coming off a season that might have been even more impressive than most realize.
There are countless reasons why Soto secured a record-breaking 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. It's clear he'll continue to dominate at the plate in 2025 and beyond, and we can expect him to set more records and hit major milestones throughout his career.
As the Winter Meetings approach and Soto’s free-agent decision looms, here’s another perspective on what makes him so exceptional. It’s another way to appreciate his defining skill as a hitter: being the toughest out in baseball.
Statcast generates "expected" stats for every hitter based on their quality of contact — the exit velocity and launch angle of each ball they hit — as well as their walks and strikeouts.
Two of the most prominent expected stats on Statcast’s leaderboard are expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and Soto excels in both categories. In 2024, his .316 xBA ranked second in the Majors behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .321, while his .646 xSLG ranked third, trailing only Aaron Judge's .723 and Shohei Ohtani's .660.
But what truly sets Juan Soto apart is his relentless ability to get on base. So, let’s dive into the third part of his expected slash line: expected on-base percentage (xOBP).
Soto’s xOBP in 2024 was an astounding .444, the highest in the Majors. And it’s not just the best of 2024 — it’s the best single-season xOBP in the entire Statcast era, which dates back to 2015.
Highest Expected OBP in a Single Season (Statcast Era, Since 2015)
- Juan Soto, 2024: .4442-T. Joey Votto, 2015: .4432-T. Mike Trout, 2019: .4432-T. Juan Soto, 2021: .443
- Mike Trout, 2016: .4366-T. Bryce Harper, 2015: .4336-T. Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023: .4336-T. Aaron Judge, 2024: .433
- Miguel Cabrera, 2015: .431
- Mike Trout, 2018: .423
Soto’s xOBP of .444 not only led all of baseball in 2024, but it also set the bar for the best season in Statcast history.
Juan Soto is undeniably one of the greatest on-base machines we've seen in the past decade — some might even argue that he is the greatest.
When you look at the top of the leaderboard for expected on-base percentage, Soto, Mike Trout, and Joey Votto form a perfect trio. These three hitters stand out not only for their immense talent but for their shared mastery of the fundamental skill of "not making outs."
In 2024, Soto had his best season yet, and his expected on-base percentage (.444) actually outpaced his already impressive actual on-base percentage of .419 — a mark that is elite in its own right. In fact, Soto was slightly better in 2024 than he was in his previous career-best season of 2021.
He also surpassed both MVPs in 2024, with his Yankees teammate Aaron Judge leading MLB in actual on-base percentage at .458, and Shohei Ohtani leading the NL at .390.
Highest Expected OBP in 2024 (Qualified Hitters)
- Juan Soto: .444
- Aaron Judge: .433
- Shohei Ohtani: .388
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .384
- Jurickson Profar: .380
Soto’s combination of elite contact hitting and plate discipline places him in a league of his own. This season, 24% of his swings produced hard contact (exit velocity of 95 mph or higher), the best of any hitter with at least 1,000 swings. Additionally, Soto chased just 18% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-best rate among hitters who saw at least 1,000 pitches outside the zone.
Both Soto and Judge ranked in the upper echelon of the league in these two key categories — hard-hit rate per swing and chase rate — but Soto slightly edged out Judge in both. This season, Soto truly cemented his reputation as one of the most disciplined and dangerous hitters in the game.
Juan Soto’s ability to consistently make hard contact earns him his hits, while his impeccable eye for the strike zone earns him his walks. Together, these skills make Soto more deserving of reaching base than any other hitter in MLB — whether you’re looking at who he is now, entering 2025, or reflecting on his journey since he debuted as a 19-year-old in 2018.
Soto’s remarkable 2024 season lifted his career expected on-base percentage to an impressive .417, the highest of any player in the Statcast era.
- Juan Soto: .417
- Mike Trout: .408
- Aaron Judge: .401
- David Ortiz: .396
- Joey Votto: .394
That number nearly matches his actual career on-base percentage of .421, which is the best among all active players.
Soto’s postseason performance in 2024 further solidified his status as one of the most consistent and dangerous hitters in the game. He demonstrated that he’s not just great during the regular season — he can raise his game when the stakes are highest.
Juan Soto's actual on-base percentage during the Yankees' playoff run was a staggering .469. But what’s even more impressive is that his expected on-base percentage in the postseason was .478.
In other words, Soto's performance was even better than his already extraordinary numbers suggested. Given how he was consistently squaring up the ball and drawing walks against some of the toughest pitching in the Majors, it’s almost as if you could count on him getting on base nearly half the time over a full World Series run.
Soto's .478 expected on-base percentage is one of the highest single-postseason marks in Statcast history. His career postseason expected on-base percentage has also skyrocketed, now sitting at .413 across playoff appearances with the Nationals (2019), Padres (2022), and Yankees (2024).
- Freddie Freeman, 2020: .490
- Juan Soto, 2024: .478
- Bryce Harper, 2023: .4774-T. Jose Altuve, 2020: .4594-T. J.D. Martinez, 2018: .459
- Bryce Harper: .432
- J.D. Martinez: .416
- Juan Soto: .413
- Daniel Murphy: .400
- Freddie Freeman: .399
Juan Soto isn’t just a force to be reckoned with during the regular season; he’s proven he can do it in the postseason, too. His ability to reach base nearly 40% of the time in both the regular season and the playoffs puts him in elite company. Right now, Soto’s on-base threat is on par with peak Mike Trout or Joey Votto. Whoever lands him is getting one of the game’s most complete hitters—now and for many years to come.
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