11:05 PM: Ardaya reports that the deferrals in Blake Snell's contract are expected to reduce the deal’s competitive balance tax hit to approximately $32-33 million annually, bringing the contract's net present value to around $160-165 million. Feinsand adds that the deal includes limited no-trade protection.
10:24 PM: Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Snell will receive a $52 million signing bonus.
10:04 PM: Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports that the deal includes deferred money, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the contract does not contain opt-out clauses.
10:01 PM: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Blake Snell and the Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract, pending a physical. Jeff Passan of ESPN adds that the deal guarantees Snell $182 million, and the left-handed pitcher announced his move to LA via Instagram on Tuesday night.
The Dodgers, coming off a World Series win, have made a splash with their biggest offseason move so far. This move represents a quicker transition for Snell than his previous free agency, when he was coming off a Cy Young-winning campaign. He didn’t land the long-term deal he sought last year, leading to an extended stay on the market. After being unsigned until March, Snell eventually signed with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year deal worth $62 million, with an opt-out after the first season.
While Snell started the 2024 season poorly, struggling with groin injuries and an ERA over 5.00 in his first six starts, his second half was a dominant turnaround. He finished the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate across 104 innings. Over his final 14 starts, Snell posted a remarkable 1.23 ERA, holding batters to a .123/.211/.171 slash line and striking out more than 38% of them. He had a career-best two-start stretch in July and August, including a 15-strikeout game against the Rockies and a no-hitter with 11 strikeouts against the Reds.
Despite his slow start, Snell’s late-season resurgence made it clear he was ready to test the free-agent waters again, ultimately turning down his remaining $30 million with the Giants. The Dodgers are confident that Snell’s early-season struggles were due to a combination of groin issues and a shortened spring training. The lefty has been known to start slowly throughout his career, posting a 3.95 ERA in the first half of seasons and a 2.39 ERA after the All-Star break.
Durability has been Snell’s biggest challenge, as he has only reached 180 innings in two seasons—his 2018 Cy Young campaign and the 2023 season with the Padres. Outside of those seasons, Snell has typically topped out at 125-130 innings. However, the Dodgers have shown they prioritize potential upside in their pitchers over bulk innings. This strategy was evident when they acquired Tyler Glasnow last offseason despite his injury history and lack of a 120-inning season.
The Dodgers' pitching strategy is tailored to the postseason, as they value pitchers who can be ace-caliber options if healthy. In recent seasons, the Dodgers have shown a willingness to take on injury risk in pursuit of high-ceiling pitchers, and Snell fits that mold. Alongside Shohei Ohtani, Glasnow, and emerging talent like Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers will have a dynamic rotation if they can stay healthy.
Snell’s inclusion in the rotation will add another ace-caliber option for the Dodgers. He ranks near the top among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, with a 2.57 ERA and a 32.7% strikeout rate. His ability to deliver dominant performances in must-win games makes him an excellent fit for a team looking to compete at the highest level in the postseason.
The Dodgers have no shortage of pitching depth, with options like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Kershaw, and a host of talented young arms returning from injury. They could also pursue further additions, like NPB ace Roki Sasaki, or bolster their rotation at the trade deadline.
The Dodgers’ ability to acquire and invest in such a deep pitching staff is a testament to their financial strength. With their third nine-figure pitching deal in the past year (fourth if you include Ohtani), the Dodgers have committed significant resources to building a championship-caliber rotation. This marks a shift from their previous strategy, which had focused more on position players and less on high-cost pitchers.
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